🧠 Congrats on your “traction” — here’s a participation trophy

Here are 5 traction metrics that don’t mean what you think they mean. They're just a heavy hit of hopium.

Hey friends 👋

Traction.

It’s almost a magic word. It’s the thing every founder needs, every investor wants to see, and every startup guru won’t shut up about.

(and yes, I get the irony)

But it seems most founders have no idea what real traction looks like.

They mistake hype for demand. They celebrate “interest” instead of actual sales. They point to a stacked pipeline, a big-name advisor, or a flashy Product Hunt launch as proof they’re winning .

But, in reality, they’ve got a fat stack of nothing.

If you’ve ever convinced yourself that an investor meeting, a waitlist, or a pilot program meant you were this close 🤏 to blowing up, then… well… at least you’re not alone.

But it’s time for a reality check.

In this issue, I break down 5 things that look like traction — but aren’t.

Let’s dive deep 👇

Join me Fridays at noon PT for office hours, right here on my Substack. Ask me anything.

I won’t waste any time. Here we go:

1. You got 500 signups from a Product Hunt launch

For a brief, shining moment, you were unstoppable.

King of the hill.

Front page, upvotes rolling in, and by the end of the day, 500 brand-new users joined your little club. So you cracked open the Dom Perignon, leaned back, and thought, this is it.

And then… crickets. 🦗

Why?

Because Product Hunt users weren’t your customers, and they were never going to be. They’re serial early adopters: people who sign up for new products the way other people try new restaurants — just for the novelty. They click around, admire the UI, maybe send you a polite “love what you’re building!”

And then they ghost.

Not because your product is bad, but because it wasn’t for them.

Because Product Hunt wasn’t a real go-to-market strategy. It was a traffic stunt — and a traffic stunt doesn’t build a business.

Real traction isn’t about a one-day flood of signups; it’s about a repeatable way to acquire and convert customers.

So what actually matters?

• Leading indicators of demand: Are your ideal users actively seeking solutions like yours?

• Go-to-market alignment: Did this launch feed into an actual acquisition channel you can scale?

• Retention & conversion: If they love it so much, why aren’t they sticking around or paying?

Product Hunt is a fun PR boost. But unless it feeds into a repeatable growth engine, all you really have is a one-day ego trip with a sharp crash at the end.

2. A big-name investor said they’re ‘interested’

You walked into that pitch meeting ready to impress.

Slick deck, clean Q&A, and by the end, the investor leaned in and said, “this is really interesting.”

You walked out freaking floating. It’s happening. They’re in. You start mentally spending that Seed money.

Then… silence.

Because “interested” isn’t a commitment. It’s investor-speak for maybe, possibly, not really, but we’ll see.

Investors and VCs take hundreds of meetings every year, knowing they’ll say no to 98% of them. They nod, smile, ask good questions — and string founders along just enough to keep their options open.

They’re not bad people. It’s just business.

But real traction isn’t about investor interest; it’s about investor conviction — and conviction comes with a term sheet.

So what actually matters?

• Committed capital: Did they actually put money in?

• Runway extension: Has your bank balance actually improved?

• Pipeline momentum: Did this meeting lead to a clear next step — or just polite emails?

Investor meetings don’t build businesses. Customers do. Until there’s a check in the bank, all you really have is a very expensive coffee date.

3. You signed a partnership agreement

You landed The Big One. 🐳

A well-known company is officially partnering with you. You signed the paperwork, sent out the press release, and are basking in the 👍 and 👏 on LinkedIn.

It’s happening.

Except… it’s not.

Because most partnerships don’t mean anything.

Startups love to announce them because it makes them look bigger, more important, and further along than they really are. But unless this “partnership” is actively driving revenue, customers, or distribution, it’s just a corporate handshake with no real impact.

Most startup partnerships fall into one of three categories:

• A logo swap — their brand looks good on your site, your brand looks good on theirs, and nothing else happens.

• A “strategic” relationship — which is code for “we might work together someday.”

• A massive waste of time — aka endless meetings, vague next steps, and zero traction.

So what actually matters?

• Revenue from partnerships: Are they sending you customers who pay?

• Active integrations: Are their users actually using your product?

• Referrals & conversions: Are they driving real, trackable demand?

A partnership that doesn’t generate money or momentum isn’t a partnership — it’s corporate flirting.

4. An enterprise prospect “loves what you’re building”

You just had the meeting.

The decision-maker at BigCo was all f*ing in — nodding, smiling, throwing out phrases like “this is exactly what we need” and “let’s keep the conversation going.”

You walk out thinking, we’re gonna land this deal.

Dark days are over. Spring has arrived. Glory is nigh.

And then? Nothing.

Why?

You got high on your own supply, and forgot a golden truth: corporates love to explore, but they hate to commit.

A well-meaning exec can genuinely love what you’re building and still ghost you the moment procurement gets involved. Enterprise sales cycles are slow, complex, and full of internal blockers — enthusiasm alone doesn’t mean they’ll ever sign a contract.

So what actually matters?

• A signed contract or LOI: Are they actually committing, or just “exploring options”?

• Budget & timeline: Is there a clear path to implementation, or just vague enthusiasm?

• Decision-maker buy-in: Does the person who writes the checks care, or just the person who took the meeting?

If your “hot lead” hasn’t moved forward in months, they’re not a prospect. They’re just a very time-consuming pen pal.

5. Your viral LinkedIn post got 1 million impressions

You did it!

You finally wrote a post that slaps. It exploded. Your notifications are on fire, DMs flooded, and engagement through the roof.

For a brief, shining moment, you feel finally seen.

So you got attention… but you didn’t get traction.

Virality is a lottery ticket, not a growth strategy. A million impressions don’t mean a million customers, and unless those likes and shares turn into actual conversions, all you’ve really built is a personal brand, not a business.

So what actually matters?

• Inbound leads & conversions: Are people actually buying, or just vibing?

• Repeatable acquisition: Can you do this again, or was it a one-time lightning strike?

• Retention & engagement: Did this spike translate into actual users who stick around?

Likes don’t keep the lights on. If your biggest win this quarter was a viral post, then… have you maybe considered folding up shop and becoming an influencer instead?

Traction isn’t a feeling. It’s a fact.

Every founder wants to believe they’re on the verge of something big. That this is the moment. That one more partnership, one more investor meeting, one more viral post will tip the scales.

But real traction isn’t about attention, interest, or hype — it’s paying customers, engaged users, and a growth engine that runs on something more reliable than vibes and wishful thinking.

So before you pop the champagne over a flashy win, take a step back. Look at your numbers. Ask yourself:

Is this something I can build on? Or is it just a very expensive pat on the back?

Because if it’s not repeatable, predictable, or scalable… may I offer you this participation trophy? 🏆

See you next week,

—jdm

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